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Remember Brexit? Why Britain could really struggle to dig itself out of recession



Remember Brexit? Why Britain could really struggle to dig itself out of recession

Yet the United Kingdom is also racing toward a self-imposed deadline to construct a post-Brexit trade agreement with the European Union, its single biggest market for exports, by the end of the year. Talks are not going well — raising the possibility of another major shock just as the expected economic recovery gains momentum.

“The whole of the advanced world is in recession because of the coronavirus,” said Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg Bank. “But the UK has an additional problem of the UK-EU negotiations in the second half of the year.”

Even without considering the implications of Brexit, the UK economy is in dire straits.

The Bank of England said earlier this month that the economy could shrink by 14% this year. That would be the biggest annual contraction since a decline of 15% in 1706, based on the bank’s best estimate of historical data. GDP could fall by 25% in the three months to the end of June.

Data released by the UK government in recent days has been harrowing. Claims for unemployment benefits soared by 69% to almost 2.1 million last month. Inflation in April, meanwhile, declined for its third consecutive month to 0.8%, raising concerns that prices could be entering a damaging downward spiral.

Restaurants and non-essential shops remain closed, and economists aren’t confident that activity will pick up right away once they reopen.

The grim mood was reflected Wednesday when the UK government sold its first bond ever with a negative yield. This indicated demand was so high that investors were essentially willing to pay the British government to lend it money.

Gilts, as they’re known, are considered a safe-haven asset, alongside US, Japanese and German government bonds; elevated demand signals that investors are worried economic growth will remain depressed.

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“The markets are reflecting the economic reality, which is that the economy has collapsed,” said Robert Wood, chief UK economist at Bank of America.

The British pound has dropped more than 8% since the start of the year to less than $1.22, and has also fallen more than 5% against the euro. The FTSE 100 (UKX) index in London has lost more than 21% year-to-date, compared to nearly 9% for the S&P 500, while the FTSE 250 index of midsize British companies is down more than 26%.

Attempting to stem the vast economic damage, the UK government borrowed £62.1 billion ($75.7 billion) in April, the highest level since records began in 1993. The government now projects it will need to borrow £298.4 billion ($363.3 billion) through March 2021, almost twice as much as at the height of the global financial crisis.

And Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey even hinted this week that official interest rates — currently 0.1% — could go negative for the first time in British history. His comments have encouraged speculation that the bank could opt for negative rates in 2021, should the economy need another shot in the arm then.

“What the Bank of England has done is remove the floor on policy rates, so you can’t assume they will definitely not cut” below zero, Wood said. “That said, clearly negative rates are one of the last resorts here.”

Brexit clock ticking

The risk they may be needed is rising because UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has committed to nailing down the terms of the UK’s new relationship with the European Union by the end of 2020, following its exit from the bloc in January.

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Failure to reach an agreement could subject UK companies to steep new tariffs, threaten their supply chains and make their products and services more expensive at the worst possible moment. The United Kingdom has until June 30 to ask for an extension to the deadline, but the Johnson government has consistently said it does not want to do this.

Talks are not going well, however. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, said last week that he was “not optimistic” about reaching a deal with the United Kingdom, adding that the EU will step up preparations for the year to end without new terms of trade in place.

The UK’s chief Brexit negotiator, David Frost, said in a letter to Barnier on Tuesday that the EU was offering up “a relatively low-quality trade agreement.”

Without a deal, industries that have already been hit hard by the pandemic would be battered even more.
David Henig, a former trade negotiator and director of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Centre for International Political Economy, said on Twitter Thursday that a 10% tariff on cars shipped to the European Union would kick in if an agreement isn’t reached, threatening at least £15 billion ($18.3 billion) in exports.

Pickering of Berenberg Bank is concerned that the running clock on Brexit talks could create problems for the United Kingdom in the second half of the year, when economic growth is meant to be picking back up.

Household spending, which makes up around 70% of GDP in the UK, will determine the trajectory of the UK’s recovery, he said. As the lockdown ends, the worry is that Britons will keep saving their money due to anxiety about their jobs or a second wave of infections, limiting the impact of government and central bank relief efforts.

Uncertainty tied to Brexit will only encourage that excessive saving, according to Pickering.
UK car sales fall 97% in worst month since 1946

Even if the United Kingdom does reach a new trade agreement with the European Union, it won’t be as favorable as the old regime. Johnson is pushing for a deal that would allow the United Kingdom to also strike an agreement with trading partners such as the United States.

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In the draft proposal released by the UK government this week, Britain reaffirmed that it does not want to be part of the EU single market, and is instead seeking a deal in line with what the bloc has in place with Canada or Japan.

“Worsening your trade terms with the destination for nearly half your exports will be an economic negative,” Bank of America’s Wood said. “[It’s] another reason to expect the recovery from this crisis to be a very elongated U [shape], and not a V.”

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar echoed this view on Thursday.

“Brexit will further complicate matters,” Varadkar said. “As I said a few months ago, Brexit’s not over. It’s only halftime.”

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Pertemuan Kelompok Kerja Pendidikan G20 di Bhubaneswar mulai 27 April; Detail diketahui



Bhubaneswar: Pertemuan ketiga Kelompok Kerja Pendidikan KTT G20 dijadwalkan akan diadakan di Bhubaneswar dari 27 hingga 29 April.

Sekretaris Bersama Kementerian Pendidikan Neeta Prasad mengatakan kepada wartawan di Bhubaneswar pada hari Selasa tentang pertemuan sub-komite G20 selama sebulan yang akan diadakan di ibukota Odisha.

Ia mengatakan perwakilan negara-negara G20 akan menghadiri pertemuan tersebut. Program-program di bawah Satuan Tugas Pendidikan dipandu oleh visi dan bimbingan Dharmendra Pradhan, Menteri Persatuan Pendidikan dan Pengembangan Keterampilan dan Kewirausahaan, memilih tema dan memastikan jangkauan ke pemuda negara.

“Di Odisha, dengan tema ‘Pekerjaan Masa Depan’, visi Menteri adalah bahwa harus ada konsultasi luas dan pemaparan yang efektif terhadap kebutuhan keterampilan yang muncul dan kebutuhan untuk keterampilan terus-menerus, keterampilan ulang dan peningkatan keterampilan di setiap distrik. Sesuai untuk kabupaten,” kata Prasad.

Menteri Persatuan Negara untuk Pendidikan Subhash Sarkar akan meresmikan sesi tersebut pada 27 April. Setelah itu, empat bidang prioritas – literasi dan numerasi dasar; pembelajaran berbasis teknologi; Masa depan kolaborasi kerja dan penelitian.

Delegasi akan mengunjungi Konark pada malam 28 April. Selain berpartisipasi dalam diskusi, para delegasi akan merasakan seni dan budaya Odisha, tekstil, kerajinan tangan, dan masakan melalui program dan menu serta pameran yang dikuratori secara khusus. .

“Menjelang pertemuan Kelompok Kerja Pendidikan G20, beberapa acara akan diadakan dari 23 hingga 25 April. Acara ini akan diselenggarakan bekerja sama dengan berbagai lembaga termasuk IIT Bhubaneswar, IIM Sambalpur, Central University, NIT, IMMT Bhubaneswar. Indian School of Business , Hyderabad, Deloitte, CII dan USIBC. ,” ujarnya.

Prasad menambahkan bahwa sesi brainstorming paralel yang melibatkan 35 perusahaan di Odisha akan diselenggarakan untuk semua distrik di negara bagian tersebut untuk membahas pekerjaan masa depan di sektor terkait. Semua 30 distrik Odisha menyelenggarakan acara ‘Jan Bhagitari’ seperti kompetisi kuis, kompetisi esai, kompetisi deklamasi, tiruan G20 dan Yuva Samvat untuk merayakan kepemimpinan G20 India.

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Sebelumnya, Menteri Pendidikan Persatuan Dharmendra Pradhan telah mengumumkan bahwa tiga pertemuan sub-komite G20 tentang pendidikan, energi, dan budaya akan diadakan di Odisha.

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Polisi Indonesia memperkuat kerja sama dengan polisi Timor-Leste



KUBANG (ANTARA) – Kepolisian Republik Indonesia (Polri) yang diwakili Kapolda Nusa Tenggara Timur (NTT) Irjen Johannis Asatoma menghadiri pelantikan pimpinannya di Dili dan mengintensifkan kerja sama dengan Kepolisian Timor-Leste (PNTL). Timor-Leste, 27 Maret.

Kabid Humas Polda NTT Kombes Ariyasandhi mengaku tidak bisa menghadiri upacara atas nama Kapolri Jenderal Listio Sigit. Azatoma menghadiri upacara tersebut dengan harapan dapat meningkatkan kerjasama antara Polri dan PNTL dalam pengamanan wilayah perbatasan.

Tiga Pos Patroli Perbatasan (PLBN) di Mota Ain, Motamasin dan Wini berada di antara Indonesia dan Timor-Leste.

“Kunjungan Kapolda juga sebagai simbol upaya untuk lebih mempererat tali persaudaraan bangsa-bangsa yang sudah mapan,” tegas Arisandhi.

Berita terkait: TNI, Polri bantu dorong perekonomian dengan jaga stabilitas: Menteri

Selama ini, kedua belah pihak sering melakukan operasi perbatasan bersama untuk menjaga keamanan kawasan dan mencegah penyeberangan perbatasan ilegal.

Asadoma berkunjung ke Timor-Leste didampingi oleh Kabolres Belu, Kabolres Kubang, Kabolres TTU, Kabolres Malaga, Kabolres Alor dan staf pribadinya.

Kapolres tersebut adalah petugas yang ditempatkan di daerah perbatasan antara NTD Indonesia dan Timor-Leste.

Dalam kesempatan itu, Asatoma menghadiri HUT ke-23 PNTL.

Berita Terkait: Polisi, TNI Intensifkan Hutan, Pencegahan Karhutla: Jokowi

Diedit oleh INE

Diterjemahkan oleh: Tegar Noorbitra
Presenter: Zafar M Siddiqui
Hak Cipta © ANTARA 2023

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Perlunya sistem baru dalam pendistribusian tenaga kesehatan: Presiden



Dalam sistem kita sekarang, tidak peduli berapa banyak tenaga kesehatan yang ada, jumlahnya tidak cukup.

JAKARTA (ANTARA) – Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi) meminta jajarannya menyiapkan pola alternatif distribusi tenaga kesehatan agar bisa tersebar merata di seluruh Indonesia.

Menteri Pendayagunaan Aparatur Negara dan Reformasi Birokrasi Aswar Anas menyampaikan hal itu usai mengikuti rapat terbatas RUU Kesehatan dengan Presiden Widodo di Istana Kepresidenan Jakarta, Senin.

“Dalam pertemuan ini, kami membahas masalah yang berkaitan dengan bidang medis. Misalnya masalah penyediaan dokter dan tenaga kesehatan,” ujarnya di Jakarta, Senin.

Anas mengatakan, Presiden memintanya untuk menyiapkan pola baru redistribusi tenaga kesehatan karena sistem yang ada saat ini tidak bisa memenuhi kebutuhan dokter dan tenaga kesehatan.

“Kami sedang menyiapkan opsi untuk mengakomodasi distribusi. Dalam sistem kami saat ini, berapa pun tenaga kesehatan yang kami miliki, jumlahnya tidak akan pernah cukup,” kata Menkeu.

Pemerintah sebenarnya sudah menyiapkan sistem tenaga kesehatan untuk daerah terpencil, namun tenaga kesehatan kembali ke kota besar setelah satu sampai dua tahun, tambahnya.

“Kalau formasi di Papua, Maluku atau daerah terpencil lainnya, biasanya tenaga kesehatan keluar setelah satu atau dua tahun. Makanya jumlahnya tidak cukup,” ujarnya.

Ia menegaskan, kementeriannya sedang menyiapkan model untuk mendukung pendistribusian seragam tenaga kesehatan di Tanah Air.

“Presiden Jokowi yakin tenaga kesehatan bisa merata di seluruh Indonesia untuk melayani masyarakat dan beberapa rumah sakit, tidak hanya di kota tapi juga di pelosok,” kata Anas.

Selain masalah redistribusi, Menkes mengungkapkan, jumlah tenaga kesehatan saat ini kurang dari yang dibutuhkan untuk rasio optimal. Menurutnya, selama ini kekurangan dokter umum dan spesialis di daerah luar Jawa.

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“Kami akan mengambil banyak langkah konkrit nanti, termasuk amandemen undang-undang kesehatan, tetapi dalam jangka pendek, pihak kami sedang memikirkan bagaimana kami dapat mendistribusikan tenaga kesehatan ini secara merata sesuai dengan jumlah tenaga kerja yang dipekerjakan,” ujarnya.

BERITA TERKAIT: Pekerja rumah tangga menganggur di tengah pandemi, kesehatan menurun
Berita terkait: Dorongan kedua misi nasional untuk melindungi tenaga kesehatan
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Diterjemahkan oleh: Ranga Pandu AJ, Resinda S
Editor: Aziz Kurmala
Hak Cipta © ANTARA 2023

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