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Remember Brexit? Why Britain could really struggle to dig itself out of recession

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Remember Brexit? Why Britain could really struggle to dig itself out of recession

Yet the United Kingdom is also racing toward a self-imposed deadline to construct a post-Brexit trade agreement with the European Union, its single biggest market for exports, by the end of the year. Talks are not going well — raising the possibility of another major shock just as the expected economic recovery gains momentum.

“The whole of the advanced world is in recession because of the coronavirus,” said Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg Bank. “But the UK has an additional problem of the UK-EU negotiations in the second half of the year.”

Even without considering the implications of Brexit, the UK economy is in dire straits.

The Bank of England said earlier this month that the economy could shrink by 14% this year. That would be the biggest annual contraction since a decline of 15% in 1706, based on the bank’s best estimate of historical data. GDP could fall by 25% in the three months to the end of June.

Data released by the UK government in recent days has been harrowing. Claims for unemployment benefits soared by 69% to almost 2.1 million last month. Inflation in April, meanwhile, declined for its third consecutive month to 0.8%, raising concerns that prices could be entering a damaging downward spiral.

Restaurants and non-essential shops remain closed, and economists aren’t confident that activity will pick up right away once they reopen.

The grim mood was reflected Wednesday when the UK government sold its first bond ever with a negative yield. This indicated demand was so high that investors were essentially willing to pay the British government to lend it money.

Gilts, as they’re known, are considered a safe-haven asset, alongside US, Japanese and German government bonds; elevated demand signals that investors are worried economic growth will remain depressed.

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“The markets are reflecting the economic reality, which is that the economy has collapsed,” said Robert Wood, chief UK economist at Bank of America.

The British pound has dropped more than 8% since the start of the year to less than $1.22, and has also fallen more than 5% against the euro. The FTSE 100 (UKX) index in London has lost more than 21% year-to-date, compared to nearly 9% for the S&P 500, while the FTSE 250 index of midsize British companies is down more than 26%.

Attempting to stem the vast economic damage, the UK government borrowed £62.1 billion ($75.7 billion) in April, the highest level since records began in 1993. The government now projects it will need to borrow £298.4 billion ($363.3 billion) through March 2021, almost twice as much as at the height of the global financial crisis.

And Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey even hinted this week that official interest rates — currently 0.1% — could go negative for the first time in British history. His comments have encouraged speculation that the bank could opt for negative rates in 2021, should the economy need another shot in the arm then.

“What the Bank of England has done is remove the floor on policy rates, so you can’t assume they will definitely not cut” below zero, Wood said. “That said, clearly negative rates are one of the last resorts here.”

Brexit clock ticking

The risk they may be needed is rising because UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has committed to nailing down the terms of the UK’s new relationship with the European Union by the end of 2020, following its exit from the bloc in January.

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Failure to reach an agreement could subject UK companies to steep new tariffs, threaten their supply chains and make their products and services more expensive at the worst possible moment. The United Kingdom has until June 30 to ask for an extension to the deadline, but the Johnson government has consistently said it does not want to do this.

Talks are not going well, however. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, said last week that he was “not optimistic” about reaching a deal with the United Kingdom, adding that the EU will step up preparations for the year to end without new terms of trade in place.

The UK’s chief Brexit negotiator, David Frost, said in a letter to Barnier on Tuesday that the EU was offering up “a relatively low-quality trade agreement.”

Without a deal, industries that have already been hit hard by the pandemic would be battered even more.
David Henig, a former trade negotiator and director of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Centre for International Political Economy, said on Twitter Thursday that a 10% tariff on cars shipped to the European Union would kick in if an agreement isn’t reached, threatening at least £15 billion ($18.3 billion) in exports.

Pickering of Berenberg Bank is concerned that the running clock on Brexit talks could create problems for the United Kingdom in the second half of the year, when economic growth is meant to be picking back up.

Household spending, which makes up around 70% of GDP in the UK, will determine the trajectory of the UK’s recovery, he said. As the lockdown ends, the worry is that Britons will keep saving their money due to anxiety about their jobs or a second wave of infections, limiting the impact of government and central bank relief efforts.

Uncertainty tied to Brexit will only encourage that excessive saving, according to Pickering.
UK car sales fall 97% in worst month since 1946

Even if the United Kingdom does reach a new trade agreement with the European Union, it won’t be as favorable as the old regime. Johnson is pushing for a deal that would allow the United Kingdom to also strike an agreement with trading partners such as the United States.

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In the draft proposal released by the UK government this week, Britain reaffirmed that it does not want to be part of the EU single market, and is instead seeking a deal in line with what the bloc has in place with Canada or Japan.

“Worsening your trade terms with the destination for nearly half your exports will be an economic negative,” Bank of America’s Wood said. “[It’s] another reason to expect the recovery from this crisis to be a very elongated U [shape], and not a V.”

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar echoed this view on Thursday.

“Brexit will further complicate matters,” Varadkar said. “As I said a few months ago, Brexit’s not over. It’s only halftime.”

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GROP bekerja sama dengan Kementerian Kesehatan Indonesia dalam program vaksinasi drive-in yang dimulai di Bali

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Kementerian Kesehatan Indonesia telah bermitra dengan GROP dan aplikasi medis Good Doctor dalam inisiatif vaksin dukungan teknis, yang awalnya diterbitkan di Bali, diikuti oleh beberapa kota di seluruh negeri. Indonesia memulai fase kedua dari programnya pada 17 Februari, menargetkan pekerja dan warga lanjut usia di layanan publik.

“Sebagai langkah kedua, kami akan memberikan vaksinasi kepada 26,1 juta lansia dan 17,5 juta pekerja yang berinteraksi dengan banyak orang, termasuk mitra penggerak Crop,” kata Menteri Kesehatan Pudi Gunadi Sadiq dalam jumpa pers, Minggu. “Pemerintah tidak dapat melaksanakannya sendiri, jadi kami menyerukan kepada semua anggota negara agar gerakan ini berhasil.” Dia berterima kasih kepada Grab dan Good Doctor, yang merupakan mitra swasta pertama kementerian dalam upaya tersebut.

Pusat vaksinasi pertama di Bali mulai beroperasi pada hari Sabtu. Perusahaan teknologi menyediakan dan mengelola situs, serta mengundang tenaga kerja, menyaring, dan menargetkan penerima vaksin.

Salah satu tujuan wisata paling populer di dunia, Bali kebanyakan turis dan tergantung Telah berjuang Selama epidemi, ribuan orang kehilangan pekerjaan. “Dengan 3.000 pekerja mendapatkan vaksinasi hari ini, kami berharap dapat mengambil langkah besar dalam menanggulangi epidemi dan mulai menghidupkan kembali sektor pariwisata,” kata Menteri Pariwisata dan Ekonomi Kreatif Sandyaka Uno, yang mengikuti konferensi pers jarak jauh.

Mitra mengatakan infrastruktur digital CropHealth dan dokter yang baik, pembuatan catatan awal dan data pasien dapat diproses secara efisien dalam kerjasama erat dengan pemerintah. Pusat tersebut akan memanggil pekerja pariwisata terkemuka dan staf transportasi umum melalui SMS. Grab juga akan menggunakan notifikasi push aplikasi lebih lanjut untuk mitra pengemudi.

Vaksin dikelola oleh Kementerian Kesehatan dan dikelola oleh dokter dan perawat yang ditunjuk. Crop dan Good Doctor akan menjalankan pusat yang juga mengandalkan opsi drive-through. Dari Bali, mitra berencana meluncurkan program pada Maret 2021 di Bandung dan Tangerang Celaton, menargetkan total 15.000 pekerja dan warga lanjut usia dan kemudian memvaksinasi kota-kota di Indonesia dan Asia Tenggara.

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Perayaan 25 Pokemon termasuk album yang menampilkan Jay Pauline, Katy Perry • EuroCommer.net

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Plus, lihat lagi konser Post Malone.

Menyusul konser virtual yang diterima dengan baik yang menampilkan Post Malone, Pokemon telah mendeskripsikan elemen musik dari hari jadi ke-25.

Waralaba ini akan merilis album musik yang menampilkan Post Malone pada musim gugur 2021 Katy Perry diumumkan sebelumnya, Kolaborator Fortnite terbaru Jay Palvin dan “Artis Superstar Kejutan” keempat.

Masing-masing dari keempatnya akan merilis satu single untuk direkam, serta video musik bertema Pokemon dan berbagai Merchandise eksklusif.

Pengumuman itu datang di akhir konser virtual menarik Post Malone yang disiarkan di seluruh dunia Minggu pagi. Di dalamnya, rapper meledak melalui beberapa lagu, termasuk sampul baru Hottie dan Smash 90s I Only Wanna Be With You dari Blowfish, sementara beberapa dengan Pokemon paling populer dari seri tersebut.

Aneh, tapi anehnya menyenangkan. Lihat lagi selengkapnya di atas.

Minggu lalu membawa serta pengumuman game besar Pokemon, dan Dua yang berbeda baru diambil di wilayah Diamond dan Berlin Chinno. Tahun ini kita akan mendapatkan remake retro dari pasangan ini dalam bentuk Shining Pearl dan Brilliant Diamond, premis dunia terbuka yang ditetapkan ratusan tahun yang lalu. Dinamakan Pokemon Legends Arcius, itu akan tiba pada awal 2022.

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Mantan remaja tunawisma membuat Lionel Richie menangis

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